According to the Metropolitan Mosquito Control District, forecasting mosquito counts “is like trying to predict if there’s going to be a storm in July.”
But the tax-payer funded organization projects that 2026 mosquito counts will be average overall. But it will be another high year for cattail mosquitoes, a species that was responsible for a mid-summer spike in mosquito activity last summer.
And Alex Carlson, the public affairs manager for the taxpayer-funded organization, noted potential concerns for a different species, the Western Encephalitis Mosquito, which is most responsible for transmission of West Nile virus to humans in Minnesota.
Carlson said last year set records for West Nile virus cases: 50 in the Twin Cities and approximately 120 statewide.
He said his organization is concerned about seeing a similar trend this year.
"The species that transmit those diseases usually peaks later in the summer, but last year, they peaked earlier, around mid to late July,” Carlson said. “So, we’re going to be monitoring those species and see if they’re active again this year, and do our best to hopefully mitigate any health issues that they might cause."
Carlson said the virus, which infects the nervous system, is hard to self-diagnose because it presents with flu-like symptoms including fever, nausea, and body aches and pains. He recommends anyone with a lot of mosquito bites who has these symptoms, or who thinks it’s anything other than the flu, seek medical care.
Carlson said mosquito control activity will begin as early as the end of next week.
“So people might start seeing our helicopters out, and then also our staff will be out starting next week, so you'll recognize us with our safety vests that say “public health mosquito control” on the back,” he said.
Tick projections
Carlson said the forecast tick numbers will also be on par with past years.
“But the change for this year is we’re projecting there might be a slightly higher risk of Lyme disease,” Carlson said. “Ticks have multiple years that they survive, and last year's larval ticks were showing a later emergence than normal and higher rates of Lyme disease.”
Carlson said the organization is already seeing evidence that deer ticks, which can transmit the disease to humans, are active.
He recommends anyone venturing outdoors during May and June, when nymph tick rates are at their highest, exercise extra precautions.
Carlson said anyone who develops a bullseye rash or flu-like symptoms after a tick bite, should seek medical attention.
